Ⅰ 期貨電子書
《克羅談期貨交易策略》
Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy （Stanley Kroll, 1988）
是本好書，需要的話留個郵箱我發給你
以下是書的引子和序：
FOREWORD
引子
In John Train』s excellent book, The Money Masters, he writes about the careers and professional methods of nine great investors. Among them are several stars whose names are well known to all of us - Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, T. Rowe Price, Larry Tisch, and John Templeton. There, among this 「Murderers』 Row」 of investors, you will also find the name of Stanley Kroll. Train describes the commodities business, where Stanley made his money, as an 「impossible casino.」 If this is so, Kroll has had some good runs at the gaming table, and they clearly are no accident or mere luck.
在《股市大亨》這本佳作中，作者約翰•崔恩描述了9位投資大師的生平事跡和專業技能。其中幾位明星——沃倫•巴菲特，本傑明•格雷厄姆，T•洛威•普萊斯，拉里•狄許和約翰•坦普頓，他們都是我們熟悉的大師。在這些堪稱「謀殺者行列」的投資者中，你也能找到斯坦利•克羅的大名。崔恩描述了斯坦利在「不可能賭場」中賺錢的期貨交易。果真如此，克羅在賭桌上的確演出了幾場精彩好戲，這絕非意外或純屬運氣。
In the 1970s, Stanley had a three-year run ring which he built $18,000 of his own money into $1 million. And he performed with equally spectacular skill for his partners. It』s best to leave the other tales of Stanley』s exploits to readers of Train』s book. Suffice it to say that they are impressive displays of guts and brains.
70年代，斯坦利有一場為時3年的演出，他將自己的18000元增值到100萬元，他為他的合夥人也賺到了相同的報酬。斯坦利其它的精彩演出，讀者可以從崔恩的著作一窺究竟。不用多說，這些表現明白地展現出他的膽識和智慧。
I am not a 「commodities man」 myself. I try to stick to the paths that I understand better, primarily equities and debt instruments. For me, reading Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy was an ecation. The thing that most impresses me about the book is that virtually all the major tenets of Kroll』s advice are rooted in a constant regard for discipline and common sense. In short, the best parts of his advice share the underpinnings of any good investment strategy - watch the markets carefully, do copious research, and keep a level head. As Stanley points out, hapless traders act 「on the basis of emotion instead of discipline, sentiment instead of logic, and subjectivity instead of objectivity.」
我並非「期貨人」。我試圖堅守在自己比較了解的金融工具，主要是股票和債券。對我而言，閱讀《克羅談期貨交易策略》是一種學習。令我印象最深刻的是，克羅建議中最重要的原則幾乎完全根植於對紀律和常識的關注。簡而言之，他最佳的建議透露出一切良好投資策略的基礎——用心觀察市場，深入研究，保持客觀。斯坦利指出，不幸的交易者「根據情緒而非紀律，依據感覺而非邏輯，以主觀而非客觀行事。」
Stanley』s trading philosophy draws most of its important principles from a central core that is key to almost all investing - identify the major ongoing trend of each market and trade in the direction of the dominant trend. Most really savvy investors know that this is as much a key of making money in equities as it is in commodities. One of the reasons that Stanley is highly regarded and has done so well is that his feet are grounded in concrete and not in clay.
斯坦利的交易哲學從一個核心思想導出若乾重要原則，這個核心思想幾乎是所有投資行為的關鍵——辨別出市場的重大趨勢，並且順勢交易。多數聰明的投資者都明白這個核心思想，在期貨市場和股票市場獲利的關鍵是一樣的。斯坦利表現良好且受重視的原因之一，即是他腳踏實地而非浮沙建塔。
When you meet Stanley, as I have many times, you are immediately impressed by how little this expert on commodities claims to know. This is one of the greatest strengths of most real experts. They don』t get overly confident or pretend omniscience. Better to constantly assume that you don』t know enough and constantly investigate your assumptions and numbers; hence, another important Kroll tenet-play in the real world. As he puts it, 「the need for a disciplined and objective approach to futures trading is a recurring theme in this book.」 Realistically, it is the theme of the book.
如果你見到斯坦利，會和我見到他一樣，他認為交易期貨不需要了解太多的東西，你會對這個觀點印象深刻。這也正是大多數真正專家最突出的優點之一。他們不會過度自信或假裝什麼都知道。最好是承認自己知識不足，而不斷研究自己的假設和數字。斯坦利另一個重要原則是——做真實的交易。正如他所說，「期貨交易所需要的紀律和客觀方法是本書一再重復的主題。」其實，這就是本書的主題。
Reading Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy can do a little something for all investors. It will not make you into an avid commodities trader overnight, but there is solid advice for each of us. For the novice, it brings a sense, stated in plain English, of how these markets operate and what investing 「systems」 can work well. For the expert, the book contains plenty of details for resharpening already good steel. For the investor in general, Stanley offers a sense of what makes good investors really good - consistent hard effort on research and the discipline to put it to work participating in significant market trends. Everyone with money in any market can benefit from a healthy dose of Stanley』s advice.
閱讀《克羅談期貨交易策略》一書，能使所有投資者有所收獲。它不會讓你一夜之間成為鮮活的期貨交易者，但本書為我們提供了可靠的建議。對新手而言，書中用平鋪直敘的文字告訴你市場是如何運作的，以及哪種投資「系統」能帶來利潤。對專家而言，本書的很多細節能讓你錦上添花。對於普通投資者而言，斯坦利提出優秀投資者成功的線索——不斷努力研究，並且付諸行動，以有紀律的方式順勢交易。任何投資者都可以從斯坦利的合理建議中受益。
Douglas A. McIntyre
President & Publisher
FINANCIAL WORLD
New York City
May 27, 1987
道格拉斯•A•麥金太爾
總裁兼發行人
《金融世界》雜志
紐約市
1987年5月27日
PREFACE
作者序言
The fund manager from Seattle, visibly agitated, had been giving me a hard time. It was a bleak mid-November afternoon in 1985, and he had come to Port Washington to talk to me about his futures trading. As we sat in the paneled salon of my boat-cum-office-cum-residence, he painfully described how he had been whipsawed in soybeans over the past year in a succession of losing trades - despite what appeared to have been a reasonably (down) trending market. Trouble was, he had allowed himself to be influenced by news, TV reports, and trade gossip. Although he had gotten onto the right (short) side of the market at times, he invariably panicked (he called it 「defensive posturing」) and closed out his good positions at nearly every countertrend rally that came along. He somehow 「managed」 to hang onto his losing trades ring this period, which considerably worsened his already dismal performance. His state of mind ring our meeting matched his gloomy track record.
西雅圖來訪的基金經理人，顯然情緒不安，給我帶來了挑戰。那是1985年11月中旬一個寒冷的下午，他來到華盛頓港，和我討論他的期貨交易。當時我們坐在既是住處又是辦公室的船艙中，他痛苦地描述著，過去幾年他一直在黃豆市場慘遭洗盤，造成一連串損失的經歷——他竟然看不出來那是個很合理的下跌趨勢。他的問題是，他讓自己受到新聞、電視報導和小道消息的影響。雖然有時候他會抓對市場趨勢（下跌），卻始終受到驚嚇（他稱之為「防守」），總是在之後的行情反彈時平倉了。不知為何，他又會抱牢虧錢的倉位，使得原本表現欠佳的成績雪上加霜。他和我談話時所表露的心態，和他差勁的交易紀錄吻合。
Having gotten his grim confession off his chest, he asked, rather testily, what my trading system had done in beans over the period. 「It』s been short since June 11,」 was my response. 「June 11? What』s so great about that,」 he managed to grumble, mentally calculating the time interval as being just five months. 「June 11 of 1984,」 I replied. A long silence ensued. We both knew that, having being continuously short of soybeans for the past 17 months, the profit in the position exceeded $10,000 per contract.
在一吐心中憤悶後，他不耐煩地問道，我的交易系統這段時間在黃豆市場的表現如何？我回答，「從6月11日開始，交易系統一直指示做空，」。「6月11日？那有什麼了不起，」他嘟囔著，心裡想這只不過是5個月的時間。我回答說，「1984年6月11日，」接著便是一段沉默。我們兩人都明白，如果過去17個月持續做空黃豆，每份合約的利潤會超過10000元。
Regrettably, this sort of conversation has been repeated countless times over the past 30 years, leading me to the inescapable conclusion that each trader』s worst enemy is neither the market nor the other players. It is he, himself…aided and abetted by his misguided hopes and fears, his lack of discipline to trade with the trend and to allow profits to run while limiting losses on bad positions, his boredom and inertia, his apparent need for 「action,」 and his lack of confidence in his own (frequently correct) analysis and trading decisions.
遺憾的是，過去30年來，這類談話一直重復不斷，我得下結論說，任何一位交易者最大的敵人絕不是市場或其他玩家，而是他自己。他們的缺點表現在：受到妄想的鼓舞，受到恐懼的教唆，沒有順勢交易，不會「截住損失，讓利潤奔跑」，感到無聊，壞習慣，沖動交易，對自己（經常是正確的）分析和交易決策缺乏信心。
Someone once said that the surest way to make a small fortune in futures trading is to start with a large fortune. Unfortunately, there is considerable truth in that bit of cynical logic. Clearly, the losers outnumber the winners by a substantial margin. So what is it that continues to attract an increasing number of investors to this game? For me, it is the knowledge-confirmed by nearly 30 years of personal experience - that the futures market is clearly the best way for an investor to have the opportunity to parlay a modest initial stake into a substantial fortune. For a trade firm or financial institution the futures markets present a means of laying off (hedging) financial risks and, in fact, having the potential to make a profit on dealings that would otherwise be a sure loss. Countless family fortunes and international mercantile empires had their humble beginnings in canny and profitable commodity dealings.
有人曾經說，要想在期貨交易上賺到一筆財富，最確定的方法是先要擁有一大筆財富。不幸的事是，這種憤世嫉俗式的邏輯卻隱含著普遍的真理。很明顯，輸家比贏家多得多。既然如此，為什麼這個游戲仍然能吸引一批又一批投資者？根據我近30年來的經驗，我認為期貨市場顯然對投資者而言，誘惑就是一開始就有機會以一小筆賭本贏到巨大財富。對貿易商和金融機構而言，期貨市場則提供了一種對沖財務風險的方法，而且還能夠在交易中獲利，相反，也會虧損。無數家族的財富以及國際商業王國都是以精明且獲利十足的期貨交易起家的。
But surely it takes far more than desire and wishful thinking for the operator to break into the winners circle. To be successful, an investor must be practical and objective, pragmatic and disciplined, and, above all, independent and confident in his analysis and market strategy. One maxim, which has consistently guided me ring scores of trading campaigns, comes from Jesse Livermore, perhaps the most successful lone market operator ring the first half of this century: 「There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side or bear side, but the right side.」
交易者要想進入贏家行列，光有慾望和一廂情願的想法是肯定不行的。要想成功，投資者必須實際而且客觀，務實而且守紀律，更重要的是，要獨立，並對自己獨到的分析和市場策略滿懷信心。在無數次的交易中，始終指引我的一句名言即來自於傑西•利弗莫爾，他或許是本世紀頭50年間最成功的獨立交易者。他表示：「市場只有一個方向，不是多頭，也不是空頭，而是做對的方向。」
I』ve spent my entire professional career as a practitioner in quest of speculative profits. But I still consider myself both student and practitioner for, in reality, you never stop learning about markets, price trends, and trading strategy. After all these years, I』m still concerned with the quest for profits - no, for substantial profits - from the markets. Considering the tremendous financial risks involved, the emotional strain, and the feelings of loneliness, isolation, self-doubt, and, at times, sheer terror which are the futures operator』s almost constant companions, you shouldn』t be content with merely making 「profits.」 Substantial profits must be your goal.
我一生以追求投機利潤作為我的專業生涯。但我還是認定自己即是學生又是專業交易者，畢竟在現實里，你必須堅持研究市場、價格趨勢和交易策略。經歷這些年，我仍關心從市場上獲取利潤——不，是獲取暴利。但在衡量巨大的財務風險、緊張、孤獨、孤立、疑慮、甚至莫名的恐懼，當然這幾乎都是期貨交易者的經常伴侶，你不應該只以「利潤」為滿足，暴利必須成為你的目標。
That is what this book is all about. It』s about the strategy and the tactics of seeking substantial profits from the markets. It』s about getting aboard a significant trend near its inception and riding it to as near to its conclusion as humanly possible. It is about making more on your winning trades and losing less on your losers. It is about pyramiding your winning positions to maximize profits while keeping losses under control.
這就是本書所要談的。本書內容涉及從市場賺取暴利的策略以及戰術。本書要談的是如何在市場即將發動大行情之際上車，並且力所能及地穩坐到行情結束。本書內容也包括教你如何在賺錢的交易賺得更多，在虧錢的交易虧得更少。本書也會告訴你在賺錢的倉位中以金字塔方式加倉以追求最大利潤並控制好虧損。
It is my belief, confirmed in the real world of tens of thousands of trades made by hundreds of traders, that viable money management strategy and tactics are as important to an overall profitable operation as a first-class trading system or technique.
我相信，已經有幾百個交易者通過成千上萬次的交易實戰確認了，有效的資金管理策略和戰術，與一流的交易系統或技術一樣重要。
And, although I would ideally prefer to have both, my priority would be for the best in strategy and tactics. You will do better, in my option, with first-class strategy and tactics and a mediocre trading system than the reverse. A significant portion of this book will be concerned with elaborating on that premise because I consider first-class strategy and tactics as the linchpin of any successful trading campaign.
另外，對於上面所說的，雖然理想上我希望二者兼備，但我會首選一流的策略和戰術，輔以普通的交易系統。我認為，如果運用一流的策略和戰術，輔以普通的交易系統，結果會比你運用一流的交易系統，輔以普通的策略和戰術要好。本書大部分內容會詳細說明這個結論，因為我認為一流的策略和戰術是一切成功交易的關鍵。
One final word before you embark on this book. Readers may write to me, in care of the publisher, about any aspects of this book they would like to discuss further. I will respond to the best of my ability and time availability.
在閱讀本書之前，還要提醒一點。讀者可以寫信給我，請出版商轉交，我願意進一步和讀者討論書中的任何問題。我會盡已所能並抓緊時間回復。（張軼註：克羅在1999年去世了。）
Stanley Kroll
斯坦利•克羅
Ⅱ 什麼是KED驅動器，什麼是轉換器
驅動器(driver)從廣義上指的是驅動某類設備的驅動硬體。在計算機領域，驅動器指的是磁碟驅動器。通過某個文件系統格式化並帶有一個驅動器號的存儲區域。
要想了解 軟盤和 光碟中的信息，就必須把他們分別插入到 軟盤驅動器和 光碟驅動器中，供計算機對上面的數據信息進行識別和處理。
軟盤驅動器和 光碟驅動器都位於機箱中，只把它們的"嘴巴"露在外面，隨時准備"吃進"軟盤和光碟。
至於硬碟，由於它是不可移動的，所以被固定於驅動器之中，也就是說，硬碟和 硬碟驅動器是一體的。將 軟盤插入 軟盤驅動器時要注意方向,3.5英寸盤在插入時應該使轉軸面向下，金屬片朝前，聽到驅動器口下方的彈出按鈕"喀噠"一聲彈出，說明軟盤插好了。
取出時，應該先按一下彈出按鈕， 軟盤會自動彈出一部分，接著將 軟盤抽出。時下，使用5.2英寸盤的人越來越少，計算機上已很少安裝5.2英寸 軟盤驅動器。 值得注意的是， 軟盤驅動器的上方或下方有一個小小的指示燈，當指示燈亮時，說明計算機正在讀或寫這個驅動器內的軟盤， 硬碟驅動器的指示燈也位於 主機箱前面板上，指示燈亮時，表明計算機正在讀或寫硬碟。設備類型
轉換器從原理上可分為協議轉換器、介面轉換器兩大類。從應用上又可以分光纖轉換器、光電轉換器、視頻轉換器等等。例如視頻轉換器就是一種連接電腦和電視的設備，它可以把電腦上的內容轉換並顯示在電視機上，讓人們可以在電視上學電腦，上網，玩游戲，做商業演示，看股票等等。
轉換模式
典型的轉換器常見的轉換模式有以下幾種：
V．35與G.703介面之間的轉換；
Ethernet（RJ45）與RS232之間的轉換；
單模光纖與多模光纖之間的轉換；
光纖介面與Ethernet（RJ45）之間的轉換；
乙太網口與E1的介面轉換；
USB介面與其他介面之間的轉換等等