Ⅰ 期货电子书
《克罗谈期货交易策略》
Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy （Stanley Kroll, 1988）
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以下是书的引子和序：
FOREWORD
引子
In John Train’s excellent book, The Money Masters, he writes about the careers and professional methods of nine great investors. Among them are several stars whose names are well known to all of us - Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, T. Rowe Price, Larry Tisch, and John Templeton. There, among this “Murderers’ Row” of investors, you will also find the name of Stanley Kroll. Train describes the commodities business, where Stanley made his money, as an “impossible casino.” If this is so, Kroll has had some good runs at the gaming table, and they clearly are no accident or mere luck.
在《股市大亨》这本佳作中，作者约翰•崔恩描述了9位投资大师的生平事迹和专业技能。其中几位明星——沃伦•巴菲特，本杰明•格雷厄姆，T•洛威•普莱斯，拉里•狄许和约翰•坦普顿，他们都是我们熟悉的大师。在这些堪称“谋杀者行列”的投资者中，你也能找到斯坦利•克罗的大名。崔恩描述了斯坦利在“不可能赌场”中赚钱的期货交易。果真如此，克罗在赌桌上的确演出了几场精彩好戏，这绝非意外或纯属运气。
In the 1970s, Stanley had a three-year run ring which he built $18,000 of his own money into $1 million. And he performed with equally spectacular skill for his partners. It’s best to leave the other tales of Stanley’s exploits to readers of Train’s book. Suffice it to say that they are impressive displays of guts and brains.
70年代，斯坦利有一场为时3年的演出，他将自己的18000元增值到100万元，他为他的合伙人也赚到了相同的报酬。斯坦利其它的精彩演出，读者可以从崔恩的著作一窥究竟。不用多说，这些表现明白地展现出他的胆识和智慧。
I am not a “commodities man” myself. I try to stick to the paths that I understand better, primarily equities and debt instruments. For me, reading Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy was an ecation. The thing that most impresses me about the book is that virtually all the major tenets of Kroll’s advice are rooted in a constant regard for discipline and common sense. In short, the best parts of his advice share the underpinnings of any good investment strategy - watch the markets carefully, do copious research, and keep a level head. As Stanley points out, hapless traders act “on the basis of emotion instead of discipline, sentiment instead of logic, and subjectivity instead of objectivity.”
我并非“期货人”。我试图坚守在自己比较了解的金融工具，主要是股票和债券。对我而言，阅读《克罗谈期货交易策略》是一种学习。令我印象最深刻的是，克罗建议中最重要的原则几乎完全根植于对纪律和常识的关注。简而言之，他最佳的建议透露出一切良好投资策略的基础——用心观察市场，深入研究，保持客观。斯坦利指出，不幸的交易者“根据情绪而非纪律，依据感觉而非逻辑，以主观而非客观行事。”
Stanley’s trading philosophy draws most of its important principles from a central core that is key to almost all investing - identify the major ongoing trend of each market and trade in the direction of the dominant trend. Most really savvy investors know that this is as much a key of making money in equities as it is in commodities. One of the reasons that Stanley is highly regarded and has done so well is that his feet are grounded in concrete and not in clay.
斯坦利的交易哲学从一个核心思想导出若干重要原则，这个核心思想几乎是所有投资行为的关键——辨别出市场的重大趋势，并且顺势交易。多数聪明的投资者都明白这个核心思想，在期货市场和股票市场获利的关键是一样的。斯坦利表现良好且受重视的原因之一，即是他脚踏实地而非浮沙建塔。
When you meet Stanley, as I have many times, you are immediately impressed by how little this expert on commodities claims to know. This is one of the greatest strengths of most real experts. They don’t get overly confident or pretend omniscience. Better to constantly assume that you don’t know enough and constantly investigate your assumptions and numbers; hence, another important Kroll tenet-play in the real world. As he puts it, “the need for a disciplined and objective approach to futures trading is a recurring theme in this book.” Realistically, it is the theme of the book.
如果你见到斯坦利，会和我见到他一样，他认为交易期货不需要了解太多的东西，你会对这个观点印象深刻。这也正是大多数真正专家最突出的优点之一。他们不会过度自信或假装什么都知道。最好是承认自己知识不足，而不断研究自己的假设和数字。斯坦利另一个重要原则是——做真实的交易。正如他所说，“期货交易所需要的纪律和客观方法是本书一再重复的主题。”其实，这就是本书的主题。
Reading Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy can do a little something for all investors. It will not make you into an avid commodities trader overnight, but there is solid advice for each of us. For the novice, it brings a sense, stated in plain English, of how these markets operate and what investing “systems” can work well. For the expert, the book contains plenty of details for resharpening already good steel. For the investor in general, Stanley offers a sense of what makes good investors really good - consistent hard effort on research and the discipline to put it to work participating in significant market trends. Everyone with money in any market can benefit from a healthy dose of Stanley’s advice.
阅读《克罗谈期货交易策略》一书，能使所有投资者有所收获。它不会让你一夜之间成为鲜活的期货交易者，但本书为我们提供了可靠的建议。对新手而言，书中用平铺直叙的文字告诉你市场是如何运作的，以及哪种投资“系统”能带来利润。对专家而言，本书的很多细节能让你锦上添花。对于普通投资者而言，斯坦利提出优秀投资者成功的线索——不断努力研究，并且付诸行动，以有纪律的方式顺势交易。任何投资者都可以从斯坦利的合理建议中受益。
Douglas A. McIntyre
President & Publisher
FINANCIAL WORLD
New York City
May 27, 1987
道格拉斯•A•麦金太尔
总裁兼发行人
《金融世界》杂志
纽约市
1987年5月27日
PREFACE
作者序言
The fund manager from Seattle, visibly agitated, had been giving me a hard time. It was a bleak mid-November afternoon in 1985, and he had come to Port Washington to talk to me about his futures trading. As we sat in the paneled salon of my boat-cum-office-cum-residence, he painfully described how he had been whipsawed in soybeans over the past year in a succession of losing trades - despite what appeared to have been a reasonably (down) trending market. Trouble was, he had allowed himself to be influenced by news, TV reports, and trade gossip. Although he had gotten onto the right (short) side of the market at times, he invariably panicked (he called it “defensive posturing”) and closed out his good positions at nearly every countertrend rally that came along. He somehow “managed” to hang onto his losing trades ring this period, which considerably worsened his already dismal performance. His state of mind ring our meeting matched his gloomy track record.
西雅图来访的基金经理人，显然情绪不安，给我带来了挑战。那是1985年11月中旬一个寒冷的下午，他来到华盛顿港，和我讨论他的期货交易。当时我们坐在既是住处又是办公室的船舱中，他痛苦地描述着，过去几年他一直在黄豆市场惨遭洗盘，造成一连串损失的经历——他竟然看不出来那是个很合理的下跌趋势。他的问题是，他让自己受到新闻、电视报导和小道消息的影响。虽然有时候他会抓对市场趋势（下跌），却始终受到惊吓（他称之为“防守”），总是在之后的行情反弹时平仓了。不知为何，他又会抱牢亏钱的仓位，使得原本表现欠佳的成绩雪上加霜。他和我谈话时所表露的心态，和他差劲的交易纪录吻合。
Having gotten his grim confession off his chest, he asked, rather testily, what my trading system had done in beans over the period. “It’s been short since June 11,” was my response. “June 11? What’s so great about that,” he managed to grumble, mentally calculating the time interval as being just five months. “June 11 of 1984,” I replied. A long silence ensued. We both knew that, having being continuously short of soybeans for the past 17 months, the profit in the position exceeded $10,000 per contract.
在一吐心中愤闷后，他不耐烦地问道，我的交易系统这段时间在黄豆市场的表现如何？我回答，“从6月11日开始，交易系统一直指示做空，”。“6月11日？那有什么了不起，”他嘟囔着，心里想这只不过是5个月的时间。我回答说，“1984年6月11日，”接着便是一段沉默。我们两人都明白，如果过去17个月持续做空黄豆，每份合约的利润会超过10000元。
Regrettably, this sort of conversation has been repeated countless times over the past 30 years, leading me to the inescapable conclusion that each trader’s worst enemy is neither the market nor the other players. It is he, himself…aided and abetted by his misguided hopes and fears, his lack of discipline to trade with the trend and to allow profits to run while limiting losses on bad positions, his boredom and inertia, his apparent need for “action,” and his lack of confidence in his own (frequently correct) analysis and trading decisions.
遗憾的是，过去30年来，这类谈话一直重复不断，我得下结论说，任何一位交易者最大的敌人绝不是市场或其他玩家，而是他自己。他们的缺点表现在：受到妄想的鼓舞，受到恐惧的教唆，没有顺势交易，不会“截住损失，让利润奔跑”，感到无聊，坏习惯，冲动交易，对自己（经常是正确的）分析和交易决策缺乏信心。
Someone once said that the surest way to make a small fortune in futures trading is to start with a large fortune. Unfortunately, there is considerable truth in that bit of cynical logic. Clearly, the losers outnumber the winners by a substantial margin. So what is it that continues to attract an increasing number of investors to this game? For me, it is the knowledge-confirmed by nearly 30 years of personal experience - that the futures market is clearly the best way for an investor to have the opportunity to parlay a modest initial stake into a substantial fortune. For a trade firm or financial institution the futures markets present a means of laying off (hedging) financial risks and, in fact, having the potential to make a profit on dealings that would otherwise be a sure loss. Countless family fortunes and international mercantile empires had their humble beginnings in canny and profitable commodity dealings.
有人曾经说，要想在期货交易上赚到一笔财富，最确定的方法是先要拥有一大笔财富。不幸的事是，这种愤世嫉俗式的逻辑却隐含着普遍的真理。很明显，输家比赢家多得多。既然如此，为什么这个游戏仍然能吸引一批又一批投资者？根据我近30年来的经验，我认为期货市场显然对投资者而言，诱惑就是一开始就有机会以一小笔赌本赢到巨大财富。对贸易商和金融机构而言，期货市场则提供了一种对冲财务风险的方法，而且还能够在交易中获利，相反，也会亏损。无数家族的财富以及国际商业王国都是以精明且获利十足的期货交易起家的。
But surely it takes far more than desire and wishful thinking for the operator to break into the winners circle. To be successful, an investor must be practical and objective, pragmatic and disciplined, and, above all, independent and confident in his analysis and market strategy. One maxim, which has consistently guided me ring scores of trading campaigns, comes from Jesse Livermore, perhaps the most successful lone market operator ring the first half of this century: “There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side or bear side, but the right side.”
交易者要想进入赢家行列，光有欲望和一厢情愿的想法是肯定不行的。要想成功，投资者必须实际而且客观，务实而且守纪律，更重要的是，要独立，并对自己独到的分析和市场策略满怀信心。在无数次的交易中，始终指引我的一句名言即来自于杰西•利弗莫尔，他或许是本世纪头50年间最成功的独立交易者。他表示：“市场只有一个方向，不是多头，也不是空头，而是做对的方向。”
I’ve spent my entire professional career as a practitioner in quest of speculative profits. But I still consider myself both student and practitioner for, in reality, you never stop learning about markets, price trends, and trading strategy. After all these years, I’m still concerned with the quest for profits - no, for substantial profits - from the markets. Considering the tremendous financial risks involved, the emotional strain, and the feelings of loneliness, isolation, self-doubt, and, at times, sheer terror which are the futures operator’s almost constant companions, you shouldn’t be content with merely making “profits.” Substantial profits must be your goal.
我一生以追求投机利润作为我的专业生涯。但我还是认定自己即是学生又是专业交易者，毕竟在现实里，你必须坚持研究市场、价格趋势和交易策略。经历这些年，我仍关心从市场上获取利润——不，是获取暴利。但在衡量巨大的财务风险、紧张、孤独、孤立、疑虑、甚至莫名的恐惧，当然这几乎都是期货交易者的经常伴侣，你不应该只以“利润”为满足，暴利必须成为你的目标。
That is what this book is all about. It’s about the strategy and the tactics of seeking substantial profits from the markets. It’s about getting aboard a significant trend near its inception and riding it to as near to its conclusion as humanly possible. It is about making more on your winning trades and losing less on your losers. It is about pyramiding your winning positions to maximize profits while keeping losses under control.
这就是本书所要谈的。本书内容涉及从市场赚取暴利的策略以及战术。本书要谈的是如何在市场即将发动大行情之际上车，并且力所能及地稳坐到行情结束。本书内容也包括教你如何在赚钱的交易赚得更多，在亏钱的交易亏得更少。本书也会告诉你在赚钱的仓位中以金字塔方式加仓以追求最大利润并控制好亏损。
It is my belief, confirmed in the real world of tens of thousands of trades made by hundreds of traders, that viable money management strategy and tactics are as important to an overall profitable operation as a first-class trading system or technique.
我相信，已经有几百个交易者通过成千上万次的交易实战确认了，有效的资金管理策略和战术，与一流的交易系统或技术一样重要。
And, although I would ideally prefer to have both, my priority would be for the best in strategy and tactics. You will do better, in my option, with first-class strategy and tactics and a mediocre trading system than the reverse. A significant portion of this book will be concerned with elaborating on that premise because I consider first-class strategy and tactics as the linchpin of any successful trading campaign.
另外，对于上面所说的，虽然理想上我希望二者兼备，但我会首选一流的策略和战术，辅以普通的交易系统。我认为，如果运用一流的策略和战术，辅以普通的交易系统，结果会比你运用一流的交易系统，辅以普通的策略和战术要好。本书大部分内容会详细说明这个结论，因为我认为一流的策略和战术是一切成功交易的关键。
One final word before you embark on this book. Readers may write to me, in care of the publisher, about any aspects of this book they would like to discuss further. I will respond to the best of my ability and time availability.
在阅读本书之前，还要提醒一点。读者可以写信给我，请出版商转交，我愿意进一步和读者讨论书中的任何问题。我会尽已所能并抓紧时间回复。（张轶注：克罗在1999年去世了。）
Stanley Kroll
斯坦利•克罗
Ⅱ 什么是KED驱动器，什么是转换器
驱动器(driver)从广义上指的是驱动某类设备的驱动硬件。在计算机领域，驱动器指的是磁盘驱动器。通过某个文件系统格式化并带有一个驱动器号的存储区域。
要想了解 软盘和 光盘中的信息，就必须把他们分别插入到 软盘驱动器和 光盘驱动器中，供计算机对上面的数据信息进行识别和处理。
软盘驱动器和 光盘驱动器都位于机箱中，只把它们的"嘴巴"露在外面，随时准备"吃进"软盘和光盘。
至于硬盘，由于它是不可移动的，所以被固定于驱动器之中，也就是说，硬盘和 硬盘驱动器是一体的。将 软盘插入 软盘驱动器时要注意方向,3.5英寸盘在插入时应该使转轴面向下，金属片朝前，听到驱动器口下方的弹出按钮"喀哒"一声弹出，说明软盘插好了。
取出时，应该先按一下弹出按钮， 软盘会自动弹出一部分，接着将 软盘抽出。时下，使用5.2英寸盘的人越来越少，计算机上已很少安装5.2英寸 软盘驱动器。 值得注意的是， 软盘驱动器的上方或下方有一个小小的指示灯，当指示灯亮时，说明计算机正在读或写这个驱动器内的软盘， 硬盘驱动器的指示灯也位于 主机箱前面板上，指示灯亮时，表明计算机正在读或写硬盘。设备类型
转换器从原理上可分为协议转换器、接口转换器两大类。从应用上又可以分光纤转换器、光电转换器、视频转换器等等。例如视频转换器就是一种连接电脑和电视的设备，它可以把电脑上的内容转换并显示在电视机上，让人们可以在电视上学电脑，上网，玩游戏，做商业演示，看股票等等。
转换模式
典型的转换器常见的转换模式有以下几种：
V．35与G.703接口之间的转换；
Ethernet（RJ45）与RS232之间的转换；
单模光纤与多模光纤之间的转换；
光纤接口与Ethernet（RJ45）之间的转换；
以太网口与E1的接口转换；
USB接口与其他接口之间的转换等等